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Talk of abolishing the Electoral College again:

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Aug. 11th, 2007 | 11:18 am

This is interesting.

I've always been a fan of abolishing the Electoral College, not just because I'm sick of getting saturated with presidential ads insulting my intelligence every. freaking. presidential. election but primarily because it leads to voter apathy. Which, mind you, may not always be a bad thing: my cynical side reminds me that far too many idiots and ignorant people vote in every election, and I frequently wish that voters would be forced to pass some sort of general knowledge test before being allowed to vote, impractical and problematic though that would be. (As a historical note, such tests were previously used specifically to keep black people from voting.)

But the general ignorance of the American electorate is one issue: voter turnout is a second and equally serious one. I can't help but think that more Americans might bother to vote, or learn something, if they felt their votes really mattered, and with the Electoral College, frankly, in most states their votes don't. And therefore, in many cases, people don't bother to vote.

For example, in the infamous 2000 election, which was predicted to be close, only 30 to 33% of the Texas electorate bothered to vote, since they knew their state's electoral votes were heading to Bush anyway, so why bother when they could be getting a lovely drink at Starbucks instead of standing in line? The following day we were told that Al Gore had won the popular vote. Quite true. But what if we had been electing the president via popular vote? Would more pro-Bush Texans have come out to vote? Quite possibly. Would they have been countered by more pro-Gore Californians and New Yorkers? Again, quite possibly. We don't know.

But alas, I fear this is all just speculation on my part: abolishing the Electoral College means amending the Constitution, and if the 2000 election didn't convince us of that need, I'm not sure that anything will.
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Comments {13}

Frank Di Vincenzo

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from: [info]lordsnotrag
date: Aug. 11th, 2007 09:10 pm (UTC)
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The Electoral college prevents presidential election to be all about the urban communities. It helps smaller states, states which, mind you, make up a lot of the agricultural and other resources of this country, remain franchised. The moment you eliminate the electoral college a presidential candidate can conceivably run on a platform that is great for those who live in the major urban complexes, but sticks it to the little guys [that incidentally feed us, mine the resources used to make our power, etc.] and win an election.

You mention the 2000 election, one of, what is it, two elections that have a difference between electoral and popular vote winners? [And the other one was resolved with a back-room deal.] We almost had a third in '04, when Kerry came close to taking Ohio, making him the Electoral winner but not the popular one. Were that to happen, how many people that screamed that Gore should be president due to popular vote would be backing Dubya for the same reason? My opinion on that? None of you would.

Honestly, the presidential elections have become like high school elections: which of the most popular kids can make the most noise. Actual solutions are secondary to what sounds good. Honestly, I'm not sure a direct popular vote of any sort should be the way to go anymore. It was not the original intent of the founders anyway. And we've proven, time and time again, that we have no clue how to choose a proper leader.

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Mari Ness

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from: [info]mariness
date: Aug. 12th, 2007 03:53 pm (UTC)
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1. On a minor note, most agriculture in the U.S. is controlled by major farming corporations, not the little guys.

2. On a secondary note, the smallest electoral college states are the District of Columbia (purely urban) Alaska (energy, not agriculture), Wyoming (also energy, not agriculture), Montana (energy/mining, not agriculture), North Dakota, South Dakota and Vermont (you have a point). A single vote from voters in these states (and DC) weighs more than a vote from voters in any other state. Energy and mining are activities funded by and run by large corporations, not "the little guys."

3. And while we're at it, New York and California do conduct a lot of agriculture.

4. On a larger note, the current electoral college system actually focuses on urban communities. The 11 largest electoral college states -- who can, on their own, determine the next president -- are:

California, Texas, New York, Florida, Illinois, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Michigan, Georgia, North Carolina and New Jersey.

Now, let's see where the largest cities in the U.S. are:

1. New York City -- NY.
2. Los Angeles -- CA
3. Chicago -- IL
4. Houston, TX
5. Phoenix - AZ
6. Philadelphia -- PA
7. San Antonio - TX
8. San Diego - CA
9. Dallas - TX
10. San Jose - CA
11. Detroit - MI
12. Jacksonville - FL (sidenote, really? I was not expecting Jacksonville to be this high on this list, but then again it covers a huge land mass. Moving on!)
13. Indianapolis -- IN (this total is inflated since this includes non-city areas)
14. San Francisco - CA
15. Columbus - OH

With the exception of Phoenix (located in a desert state) and Indianopolis (which includes several other cities/suburbs in its total), you'll note that these cities are all located in the large electoral college states, and that with the exceptions of Georgia (which has one of the largest 50 cities) and North Carolina (which has one of the largest 30 cities.)

In any case, your argument ignores my main point, which is that under the electoral college system, people's votes are not equal, and many people do not bother to vote since they know their state is already going to one candidate or another. The Texas problem I discussed in my initial post happened in several elections, not just the last.

But I agree that we're terrible at choosing a proper leader.

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Mari Ness

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from: [info]mariness
date: Aug. 12th, 2007 04:01 pm (UTC)
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Let me add that we've actually had three elections where the winner of the popular vote did not take the electoral college. But, as I noted in my post, the electoral college system by default screws up the popular vote. In states where people know that their state is going to one candidate or another, they don't vote -- voter turnout is much higher in the uncertain states. And that's a real problem. In your example of the 2004 election, voter turnout was low in several Democratic states because they knew their state was going for Kerry. And low in in states that were going to George W. Bush, like Texas. The turnout was high only in states where the outcome was uncertain or where other issues were on the ballot. This does screw, as you mention, the little people in those states.

What I meant to mention in my earlier comment is that the 11 major electoral college states all, with the possible exceptions of North Carolina and Georgia, contain large urban areas -- which means that candidates are already focused on policies that help large urban areas.

The states that really get screwed here are the states in the middle -- the ones that aren't large enough to be in that 11 large state group, and the smaller states where a voter's single vote is over represented (as in Alaska, where a single vote in Alaska weighs more than a single vote in Tennessee.) These includes some of the states I assume you were talking about -- Nebraska, Iowa, Kentucky, Missouri, Arkansas, Kansas, Minnesota -- solid "heartland" states, heavily focused on agriculture, but without as much power in the electoral college.

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Mari Ness

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from: [info]mariness
date: Aug. 12th, 2007 04:05 pm (UTC)
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Or, more simply, the system favors large states and small states and screws everyone in the middle.

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Frank Di Vincenzo

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from: [info]lordsnotrag
date: Aug. 12th, 2007 05:33 pm (UTC)
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A three-comment response. I'm honored. :)

Okay, I might've laid the "little guy" layer too thick. But to get away from that verbiage:

Population concentrations and regional needs. I would like to see a leader of this nation have concern for all regions of the country, and not just where most of the populations are. Urban centers have needs that focus on that lifestyle and sometimes come in contradiction with the regional needs in less populated areas. However, in a straight popular vote system, these urban centers carry far, far more weight in a vote than other areas of the country.

So what, you say? Will of the people and all that. Equal votes. Wonderful. Except that, while the votes themselves may be equal, the voting blocks won't. People tend to think about what affects them directly. Gimme what I want/need. And politicking is all about giving the people who will get you in office what they want. So, in a general popular vote system, the candidates will tailor their campaigns to cater to these urban areas. It's the easiest way of getting elected. Grab the most votes from those regions. Those 15 cities you listed would become the gateway to the presidency.

You speak of places like Alaska where an individual vote technically weighs more than one in, say, Tennessee. However, in a popular vote system, the Alaskan vote, as well as votes in states of that ilk, will be worth less, because the candidates will have no real reason to care about them. Talk about voter disenfranchisement. What you describe as people not turning out to vote because "their state is already decided" grows to a national level, where people in rural areas don't vote because the "city boys" make all the decisions.

[On a side note, I don't approve of people who don't vote because they think their side will lose. Guys and gals, all not voting does is help insure that your prediction will be right. If you think your candidate won't win, go vote and see if you can be a part of changing that. If you don't, then I'm glad your guy/gal didn't get in.]

The "all-or-nothing" electorate system per state gives these voters actual power that they would never achieve in a popular vote. It forces national candidates to actually consider the needs of not just 15 cities, but other states as well. Maybe it provides some additional weight to those votes. [I wasn't ignoring this point before.] But I consider that to be the smaller crime. Better that than have our leaders cater to only one category of lifestyle.

Not that it really matters. A constitutional amendment would require 3/4 of those same small states to ratify it. I doubt that will happen anytime soon. But then, I did mention people make bad voting decisions.

As for Jacksonville: It's the largest city in land area in the US. It may actually hold that title for the hemisphere. [And, if not, it's almost certainly in the top 5.] And yet they can barely hold onto one professional sports franchise. Go figure.

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Mari Ness

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from: [info]mariness
date: Aug. 12th, 2007 05:59 pm (UTC)
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However, in a straight popular vote system, these urban centers carry far, far more weight in a vote than other areas of the country.

Ok, to repeat the point: this is exactly what is happening now with the electoral college system. Exactly. The states with the heavy electoral college votes are heavily urbanized states; the rural states of Missouri end up being marginalized. The biggest problem with the system is that it overweighs both the very unpopulated areas of Montana, Wyoming and Alaska (Vermont squeezes into small state status because, well, it has a very small area) AND the urban areas. So saying that a popular vote will emphasize urban areas may be correct, but that isn't a change in the current system in the slightest. New York State has the second highest electoral vote total because of New York City; California wins because of Los Angeles, San Diego, San Jose and San Francisco.

So the problem that you see with the rural vote is already happening under the current system.

Let's crunch some more numbers.

Currently about 57% of the U.S. population lives in an urban/suburban district; 43% live in the "country". (The definitiions are a bit problematic.)

Total U.S. population: 281,421,906

North Dakota: 642,200
Alaska: 626,932
Montana: 902,195
South Dakota: 754,844
Wyoming: 493,782
Vermont: 608,827

(all figures based on 2000 census)

These six states, therefore, have a total of 4,028,780 people, or about 1.4% of the population.

They control 18 Electoral College votes; the Electoral College consists of 538 votes. Therefore, they control about 3.3% of the Electoral College vote. Two problems here: 1, 3.3% is not enough to convince anyone to look out for their interests, which puts your argument into question (because, seriously, when was the last time that we saw political candidates really concerned about the voters of North Dakota), but despite that, this represents more than twice their percentage of the U.S. population. Problem. In addition, candidates can consider the needs of just 11 of the 50 states in the current system; the balance occurs from the lucky historical/political accident that California usually (not always) votes Democratic and Texas usually (not always) votes Republican, cancelling each other out.

I agree that a constitutional amendment has perhaps a .03% chance of passing and it's entirely possible that I'm overestimating its chances :)

And I don't get Jacksonville either :)

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Frank Di Vincenzo

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from: [info]lordsnotrag
date: Aug. 12th, 2007 10:00 pm (UTC)
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So, the problem already exists. I admit that. And the idea is to make it worse? To what end? So a result that's happened 3 times in the country's history can never happen again? Even if the change sets it up so that some people can be more disenfranchised than they already were? So that 15 cities can determine the presidency instead of 11 states? I don't see what you're gaining from this course of action. What's the plan? To change which people get disenfranchised more?

If you want a better direction to point your verve, don't gun for the vote method, which does the best it can under the circumstances. Point it at the real problem: that we are not really given a choice for who is best to run the country. Our choice is more along the lines of, "who will screw things up the least?" This is the wonderful product of our two-candidate system and their respective primaries. Events that are handled through a combination of money-collecting, pandering to special interest groups and a selection process that is closer to a popular vote than even the general election. If anything, the noise over the election process is smoke to cover that underlying problem.

So don't bash the voting machine. Bash the political machine.

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Mari Ness

(no subject)

from: [info]mariness
date: Aug. 13th, 2007 12:53 am (UTC)
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Because with a popular vote, the rural areas you're concerned about represent 47% of the vote. At the moment, those 11 Electoral College states, all of which contain large urban areas, control over 50% of the Electoral College. Keeping the electoral college worsens the problem of those 15 cities controlling the vote. Again, it's an issue of numbers. For example, four of those cities are in California, which with 55 Electoral College votes

I do agree with you that the two party/two candidate system presents serious difficulties. I'll note, however, that countries who elect leaders via popular or parliamentary vote, without this Electoral College system, do frequently have more than two parties. Canada, which like the U.S. has a semi-federal system, but which unlike the U.S. is a parliamentary democracy, has at least four major parties. I don't think that the two party system has resulted solely from the Electoral College, but I will note that Jamaica, which until recently was also dominated by two parties, is developing a nice strong third party -- and Jamaica doesn't have an Electoral College. So the evidence from other countries suggests that electing the president via popular vote, instead of the Electoral College, might actually help allow third parties to rise -- or might allow one party to dominate politics, since that happens as well.

I do, though, agree wholeheartedly that the primary system is not bringing us the most qualified candidates to choose from, and I don't expect anything different next year. I think part of the problem there is that two years is just too long of a presidential election process (which is why I applaud Thompson and Bloomberg for continuing to sit out and just toy with the thought of running.)

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Frank Di Vincenzo

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from: [info]lordsnotrag
date: Aug. 13th, 2007 01:34 pm (UTC)
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Does England run the same system as Canada? [Honestly don't know.] Reason I ask is that, if so, England effectively has a two-party system, with no significant sign of getting a strong third party. So I'm not convinced that any voting method supports or restricts the creation of a solid multi-party process. Besides, it's not like the American mindset remotely matches how people think anywhere outside our borders. :P

So, no post yet about Karl Rove resigning?

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Mari Ness

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from: [info]mariness
date: Aug. 13th, 2007 02:14 pm (UTC)
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Both England and Canada have parliaments, but England doesn't have a federal system.

But, you're wrong. England actually does have a strong third party - the Liberal Democratic party.

Current MPs:

Labour: 353
Conservative: 195
Liberal Democrats: 63

Other small parties: 35

And Labour originally arose as a third party.

It is true that popular or parliamentary vote can result in one party dominating the elections with only token opposition. This has happened in Venezuela (largely because of Chavez; if Chavez dies, I'm not convinced that party will retain control) and in Singapore, for instance. (I'm not counting countries like China where only one party is allowed to put candidates on the ballot in the first place.) Or it can lead to a two party system, although the only other example of this that I'm aware of, Jamaica, is developing a third party. But in the majority of cases, popular/parliamentary voting leads to a multiparty system, as in Canada, Germany, Italy, Spain, Israel, and so on. In the meantime, the U.S. has been dominated by the same two political parties since 1865; third party opposition from the Progressive/Bull Moose parties, the Socialists, sorta Ross Perot, and so on has occasionally gained some local seats, and one Congressional seat, but has never created a successful third party.

But maybe Bloomberg will change that next year, if he decides it's worth it. Which does bring up a whole other can of worms.

And nope. I shall allow Karl Rove to resign quietly and enjoy his forthcoming very very lucrative consulting career.

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Frank Di Vincenzo

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from: [info]lordsnotrag
date: Aug. 13th, 2007 03:23 pm (UTC)
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Didn't know about the liberal dems in England. Hmmph. And is Bloomberg independent? I thought if he ran it would be for the GOP nomination.

In any case, a fun discussion as always. :)

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Mari Ness

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from: [info]mariness
date: Aug. 13th, 2007 03:39 pm (UTC)
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Bloomberg was a Democrat, then a Republican, and recently left the Republican Party and declared himself an independent. If he runs -- and it's all just fun speculation at this point -- he would presumably launch either a third party independent bid, or use the newly formed Unity2008 party, which is arguing for the need of a third party candidate.

And yep :)

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Meander

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from: [info]meandering
date: Aug. 16th, 2007 04:06 pm (UTC)
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I think the deal with Jacksonville is that the city occupies the entire county that it's in. Jacksonville city limits start at the borders of the county.

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